While the Democrats are celebrating and the press is trumpeting a Republican loss, passage of the Health care reform bill is far from certain. Although the bill was passed in the house 220-215, the margin was an extremely. Add to this, the bill is yet to pass in the Senate, which is the ultimate test. The Senate is a where minority parties or individuals have a lot of say and can place a block to the bill. However there is some hope.
When the bill does go to the Senate, some who voted against it may decide to change their minds if they think that the bill has improved, especially since the public option has been dropped. There is also more pressure expected from President Obama and Speaker Nancy Pelosi which could change opinions. Another factor in the favor of the bill is pressure from voters. However this is not a strong factor and has a low chance of affecting the outcome of the Senate vote.
Conversely the lack of a public option, being abortion friendly and public opinion not being very favorable are reasons why some congressmen who voted “Yes” might switch to a “No”. So what is the bottom line? The outcome of the Senate vote is anybody’s guess and White House spokesman Robert Gibbs’s statement of “Health-care reform is now a matter of when” is best taken with a little more than a pinch of salt.